Winter Is Coming: The Pentagon’s Game of Thrones

The great houses of defense must unite to defeat the White Walkers of modern warfare.

Game of Thrones is my favorite book series and TV show. It’s a tale of power, betrayal, and the relentless struggle for control. But beneath the bloodshed and battles, it’s a story about the cost of ignoring existential threats. While the noble houses fight among themselves, the real enemy—the White Walkers—advances from the North, threatening to wipe them all out.

The world of the defense industrial base feels much the same. Every house is vying for control—the traditional primes, the non-traditional disruptors, the consultants and system integrators—each believing they have the right to rule. But as in Westeros, the real threat isn’t a rival house. It’s a new kind of warfare defined by AI, autonomy, and mass production of low-cost, intelligent systems. It’s the White Walkers—and they’re coming.

If the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have taught us anything, it’s that advanced technology matters, but so does sheer volume. Precision munitions are powerful (and essential if you want to, say, take out a hardened, underground nuclear site), but thousands of loitering drones can overwhelm the most advanced systems. Ukraine’s defenders are showing the world how a combination of AI, software, autonomous systems, and relentless firepower can level the battlefield against a superior force. It’s a lesson straight out of Westeros: having the best sword doesn’t matter if your army is outnumbered a hundred to one.

In our world, winter has arrived in the form of AI, autonomy, mass manufacturing, and a new world order where U.S. dominance is no longer assured. In this Game of Thrones, the Pentagon is the Iron Throne—the seat of power, the issuer of decrees, and the allocator of resources. Westeros is the entire defense industrial base: the vast realm of primes, non-traditional companies, consultancies, system integrators, research labs, and FFRDCs that surround, supply, and shape the warfighting enterprise.

Like the noble houses of Westeros, each faction claims to serve the realm, yet competes for influence, contracts, and control. But history and fiction show us that divided kingdoms fall. A house divided against itself cannot stand. In an era defined by AI, autonomy, and the pacing threat of China and its partners, our strength will not come from any one house, but from unity—from aligning our platforms, software, doctrine, and industrial capacity into a force so integrated, so responsive, and so massive that we can deter, deny, and defeat any adversary threatening America and its allies.

Each house has its strengths. Each house has its blind spots. But if Westeros is going to weather the coming storm, they must work together. This article explores how each house is operating today and how they can unite to protect Westeros from the advancing winter.

First is House Stark—noble, relentless, and often underestimated—, which represents the non-traditional defense tech companies: think Anduril, Shield AI, Saildrone, and Saronic. They aren’t the biggest, but they’re the fastest. They see winter for what it truly is: a data-driven, software-defined battlefield where speed, autonomy, and intelligence are as vital as firepower. These companies are building AI-first hardware—modular systems that adapt in real time, drones that operate in swarms without comms, and platforms that fuse sensor data across domains to give commanders a single pane of data.

“The lone wolf dies, but the pack survives.” The Starks know survival depends on systems moving and thinking as one. The Pentagon is still building lone wolves: slow, rigid programs from a different age. And as in Westeros, no one listened to the North until the enemy was at the gates. But even the sharpest sword in the North can’t stop the long night alone. A handful of unicorns cannot scale fast enough to defeat the White Walkers by themselves.

Meanwhile, House Lannister—the powerful, golden, and ruthlessly calculating dynasty—represents the traditional primes: think Lockheed, BAE, and HII. They’ve ruled for decades, shaping programs of record, dominating Pentagon budgets, and building exquisite, hardware-centric platforms like the F‑35, missile defense systems, and naval warships. These are touted as the crown jewels of American deterrence.

But winter doesn’t care about prestige. It demands speed, adaptability, and volume. And today’s fight requires more than just exquisite systems. In the current conflict between Israel and Iran, we see a new model emerging: an Israeli military that fields fifth-generation fighters and premier missile defenses while simultaneously deploying mass-produced drones, interceptors, and autonomous systems. When Iran launches volleys of Shahed drones and ballistic missiles, it’s not just the Iron Dome and David’s Sling that defend the homeland—it’s a layered response built on real-time data, AI, and the rapid employment of low-cost systems to fill the gaps.

Ukraine is using the same playbook. In Operation Spiderweb, Ukrainian forces used over 100 low-cost, AI-enabled drones to strike deep inside Russia, damaging strategic bombers parked on the tarmac. A $7 billion capability was neutralized by a few hundred thousand dollars’ worth of autonomous systems—not with brute force, but with coordination, software, and saturation.

The lesson is clear: primes must evolve. They must continue building the exquisite, but also make room for the expendable: cheap, smart, and scalable tools that integrate seamlessly with legacy systems. The future belongs to those who can deliver both the F‑35 and the $5,000 drone—not as rivals, but as partners in the fight.

Then there’s House Tyrell—wealthy, shrewd, and always hedging their bets—, which represents the systems integrators and consultancies: SAIC, IBM, BCG. For years, they’ve sat at the right hand of the king, brokering deals, managing programs, and advising on strategy. They are the trusted stewards of bureaucracy, helping the Pentagon navigate complexity and stand up new initiatives. But winter is an equalizer. In an era where AI can automate entire workflows and detect fraud without a battalion of analysts, the Tyrells must change. They can no longer rely on armies of consultants; they need armies of algorithms.

And to stay relevant, they’re evolving. House Tyrell is doubling down on digital and finally shifting from cost-plus and time-and-material contracts to firm-fixed-price, outcome-based models. They’re not just advising anymore—they’re positioning themselves as the bridge between the old and the new; the ones that can help the Lannisters modernize their platforms and help the Starks integrate their AI, hardware, and software into legacy systems—all without losing control of the kingdom. In this new world, delivery trumps documentation, and the Tyrells know their survival depends on outcomes, not PowerPoints.

These are the main houses, but there are others. Players that don’t wear house sigils, but that have deep roots across the entire kingdom.

Players like the Maesters. In the world of defense, these are the FFRDCs and warfighting labs. Institutions like MITRE, the Aerospace Corporation, MIT Lincoln Lab, and military research labs serve as the scholar-warriors of the Pentagon. They are cloistered in knowledge and protected by tradition. They claim neutrality but shape decisions, set standards, and often build systems themselves—competing directly with the Starks, Lannisters, and Tyrells while insisting they serve only the realm.

The Maesters bring deep technical expertise, but they also guard the old ways. They often slow the pace of change by defining requirements, writing evaluations, or building prototypes that never scale—not because they don’t care, but because they’ve been trained to value consensus, documentation, and risk avoidance. Yet increasingly, they don the armor of implementation, crossing the line from advising to executing, sometimes bidding against the very industry they were meant to support.

And then there’s the Iron Bank of Braavos—the venture capital and private equity firms that, like their fictional counterpart, bet on performance and expect returns. In this new world, capital is a weapon—and the firms willing to fund AI, mass manufacturing, autonomous systems, and scalable software at speed are reshaping the battlefield. They don’t wait for requirements; they fund capability. And increasingly, they’re tilting the balance of power. These investors aren’t bound by tradition—they reward outcomes, punish inefficiency, and force urgency into a system that often resists it. But like the Iron Bank, their patience isn’t infinite. If the realm wants to survive, it must learn to partner with those who expect not just patriotism, but performance. Because in war, as in markets, cash is king—and speed is survival.

Then there are the White Walkers. The White Walkers didn’t emerge from the mists—they were the product of a desperate decision by the Children of the Forest, who created them to defeat their enemies. But in so doing, they unleashed a force beyond their control. That’s not just myth—that’s modern geopolitics.

The White Walkers in our world are China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. But China is the Night King: the strategic, calculating, unrelenting force assembling and deploying an army of cheap, autonomous, and scalable systems. And like the Children of the Forest, we helped create this threat. We opened our universities, shared our intellectual property, offshored our manufacturing, and let short-term expediency outweigh long-term resilience. For decades, Western governments and industries prioritized efficiency and profit over sovereignty, and now we’re suffering the consequences—not just in trade, but in technology, manufacturing, and warfare.

Just as the noble houses of Westeros ignored the threat in the North until it was almost too late, we’ve spent decades distracted by bureaucratic power struggles, turf wars, and the illusion of permanent superiority. We empowered the next generation of adversaries. We became reliant on Chinese supply chains for critical defense components. We slowed our pace of innovation while China accelerated, building kill webs, space capabilities, and mass-manufactured drones and ships at a pace and scale rivaling any mass mobilization in world history.

And now, the White Walkers are marching—across cyberspace, across global institutions, breaching the Wall of the First Island Chain. Their numbers are growing. Their weapons are smart, cheap, and plentiful. They don't care about cost-plus contracting or legacy integration cycles. They don’t ask permission. They move. And if we continue to fight among ourselves, they will win.

So what do we need to do? Unite. The Maesters (the FFRDCs, labs, and federally funded research shops) must stop pretending they can remain neutral scribes. They’ve stepped into the arena by developing tech and competing for contracts, so now they must also take responsibility for speed, scale, and real-world outcomes. They can no longer serve as gatekeepers of the old ways; they must become enablers of the new. House Lannister (the primes) must open up its platforms, evolve from bespoke systems to reprogrammable warfighting machines, and produce at quantities that match the pacing threat. House Tyrell (consultants/system integrators) must help the bureaucracy move faster, shifting from advising to automating, from inputs to outcomes, from time-and-materials to firm-fixed-price. And House Stark (the non-traditional disruptors) must lead in building open architectures, AI agents, and modular autonomy that can scale.

This is a battle for dominance. The White Walkers are already marching—in the Western Pacific, the skies over Ukraine, the mountains and deserts of the Middle East, and the factories producing equipment and munitions by the tens of thousands. The great mistake of Westeros was failing to recognize that the old feuds no longer mattered. The same is true in Washington, D.C. Debates over contract vehicles, ownership of requirements, and turf wars between program offices won’t matter if our adversaries move faster and hit harder. This isn’t about who wins the next program or who gets the prime slot. It’s about whether we can field autonomous systems in weeks instead of years. Whether we can build mass quantities of equipment and munitions at the speed of relevance. Whether we can push software updates to deployed platforms in real time. Whether our analysts are empowered by AI Agents or buried under manual spreadsheets and drudgery.

The stakes are existential—and the winner will be the side that figures out how to fight like a pack, not like a collection of feuding houses.